Friday, September 2, 2016

What Analyst Set Lower Earnings Estimate: Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD) , CorMedix Inc (NYSEMKT:CRMD)

Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD) negotiated 8.45 million shares against it an average volume of 10.18 million shares. The stock concluded the recent trade at $79.57 with upbeat trend move of +0.85%. The company has total market value of 105.01B. The company has got a 52-week exceptional price of $117.70 and reached a 52-week lowest of the share price at $77.92. The daily trading range was observed between a day’s low price of $78.80 to a day’s high price of $79.98.

This Quarter Earnings Per Share Estimates:

According to FactSet data, Analysts estimated the EPS for This Quarter. These Analysts measured the Higher, Lower and Mean Estimated EPS for this stock. Mean Earnings Per Share (EPS) forecast is set at $2.88 by these analysts. Higher EPS estimate that can be reached in this quarter is determined at $3.11 and lower forecasted EPS is placed at $2.63. The mean EPS is calculated keeping in view the consensus of 22 Analysts. Coefficient Variance is noted at 4.84.

Next Quarter Earnings Per Share Estimates:

Different Analysts projected the EPS Estimate for Next Quarter. These Analysts measured the Maximum, Minimum and Mean EPS forecasts for this stock, according to FactSet. Mean EPS forecast of 22 analysts for Next Quarter is set at $2.81. Maximum EPS estimate that expected in next quarter is noted at $3.07 and minimum forecasted EPS is calculated at $2.55. Coefficient Variance is measured at 5.15.

Gilead Sciences Inc.’s (GILD) stock price showed weak performance of -0.25% in last seven days, switched down -7.21% in last thirty days and it fell -30.26% in last one year. It has 1328.48 million of outstanding shares and its shares float measured at 1323.66.

CorMedix Inc (NYSEMKT:CRMD) closed with gain of +24.82% to $1.76. Recent traded volume was 1.64 million shares versus to it an average volume of 333.56 thousand shares. The company market cap of 65.45M. The stock’s day range was recorded between a low of $1.42 and a high $1.83. The one year high of the company is $4.54 and the one year low is $1.15.

After the last closing session, the bid price was seen at 1.80. The bid price represents the higher price that a buyer or buyers are willing to pay for a security. The ask price was registered at 1.83. The ask price indicates the lower price that a seller or sellers are willing to receive for the security.

This Quarter Earnings Per Share Estimates:

According to FactSet data, Analysts estimated the EPS for This Quarter. These Analysts measured the Higher, Lower and Mean Estimated EPS for this stock. Mean Earnings Per Share (EPS) forecast is set at $-0.15 by these analysts. Higher EPS estimate that can be reached in this quarter is determined at $-0.14 and lower forecasted EPS is placed at $-0.18. The mean EPS is calculated keeping in view the consensus of 3 Analysts. Coefficient Variance is noted at -15.06.

Next Quarter Earnings Per Share Estimates:

Different Analysts projected the EPS Estimate for Next Quarter. These Analysts measured the Maximum, Minimum and Mean EPS forecasts for this stock, according to FactSet. Mean EPS forecast of 3 analysts for Next Quarter is set at $-0.17. Maximum EPS estimate that expected in next quarter is noted at $-0.15 and minimum forecasted EPS is calculated at $-0.21. Coefficient Variance is measured at -20.38.

CorMedix, Inc.’s (CRMD) price volatility for a month noted as 8.15% however its price volatility for a week documented as 11.82%. The corporation holds 36.01 million outstanding shares and its 35.46 million shares were floated in the market. The stock established a positive trend of 14.29% in last week and indicated rise of 4.76% in previous month.

Global Nonstructural Protein 4B (NS4B) Pipeline Review, H1 2016 - Gilead Sciences, GSK, Inovio, Johnson & Johnson & Merck & Co - Research and Markets

 This report provides comprehensive information on the therapeutic development for Nonstructural Protein 4B NS4B, complete with comparative analysis at various stages, therapeutics assessment by drug target, mechanism of action (MoA), route of administration (RoA) and molecule type, along with latest updates, and featured news and press releases. It also reviews key players involved in the therapeutic development for Nonstructural Protein 4B NS4B and special features on late-stage and discontinued projects.

The report enhances decision making capabilities and help to create effective counter strategies to gain competitive advantage. It strengthens R&D pipelines by identifying new targets and MOAs to produce first-in-class and best-in-class products.

Key Topics Covered:

    Introduction
    Nonstructural Protein 4B NS4B Overview
    Therapeutics Development
    Pipeline Products for Nonstructural Protein 4B NS4B - Overview
    Pipeline Products for Nonstructural Protein 4B NS4B - Comparative Analysis
    Nonstructural Protein 4B NS4B - Therapeutics under Development by Companies
    Nonstructural Protein 4B NS4B - Therapeutics under Investigation by Universities/Institutes
    Nonstructural Protein 4B NS4B Products Glance
    Late Stage Products
    Clinical Stage Products
    Early Stage Products
    Nonstructural Protein 4B NS4B - Products under Development by Companies
    Nonstructural Protein 4B NS4B - Products under Investigation by Universities/Institutes
    Nonstructural Protein 4B NS4B - Companies Involved in Therapeutics Development

IRS is urged to investigate Gilead for ‘dodging’ US taxes

An advocacy group is urging the US Internal Revenue Service and the US Treasury Department to investigate Gilead Sciences for allegedly shifting billions of dollars of income offshore in order to avoid paying taxes. The request from Americans for Tax Fairness comes one month after the group released a report accusing the drug maker of dodging $10 billion in taxes.

The move also comes shortly after the federal government went to court to force Facebook to respond to summonses in connection to an investigation into whether the firm shifted certain property rights to an Irish subsidiary. The social media site may owe anywhere from $3 billion to $5 billion in back taxes, and the advocacy group maintained that Gilead is worthy of the same scrutiny.

Gilead is using “a similar highly aggressive use of transfer pricing,” a maneuver that involves shifting properties between entities, “to avoid US taxes and benefit from substantially reduced tax rates. We urge the administration to bring the full force of your enforcement capabilities against Gilead to collect the tax dollars that rightfully belong to the American people,” the group wrote the federal agencies in a letter Wednesday.

In its report, the advocacy group analyzed Gilead’s financial filings and determined that by transferring certain key assets to Ireland, the company was able to take advantage of tax laws that allowed some US sales to be shifted overseas and yield a significantly lower tax rate. Those overseas profits, meanwhile, mushroomed to $28.5 billion, while Gilead was able to escape nearly $10 billion in US taxes.
Gilead   
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Gilead avoided nearly $10 billion in taxes last year thanks to tax dodges

“The facts suggest that Gilead may be declaring its offshore profits in Ireland, a tax haven, because the key hepatitis C drug, Sovaldi, from which Gilead derives most of its profits has been domiciled there since 2013, even though the patent is registered in the United States, and the bulk of Gilead’s hepatitis C drug sales is in the United States,” the letter to the IRS and the Treasury Department stated.

As the advocacy group noted in its recent report, three years ago, a Gilead executive told analysts the patent had been domiciled in Ireland, which would allow the US corporate tax rate to “decline over time.” As ATF noted, Gilead’s worldwide effective tax rate has since plummeted by 40 percent — falling to 16.4 percent last year from 27.3 percent in 2013.

In its letter, ATF also urged the agencies to investigate before the European Commission pursues enforcement actions that would force European nations to collect higher taxes from US companies that are sheltering profits there. If that were to happen, these other countries would collect money that “rightfully belongs to US taxpayers.”
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As we noted previously, there has been controversy about US companies that exploit loopholes to avoid paying taxes. Drug makers, in particular, have been singled out for attempting to acquire rivals based overseas to enjoy lower tax rates. The Treasury Department recently issued new rules to thwart such deals, known as tax inversions, prompting Pfizer to scuttle a plan to acquire Allergan.

Whether the IRS will take action is unclear. An IRS spokesman wrote us that “federal privacy law prohibits the IRS from commenting on specific taxpayers.”

Gilead Draws Buyers as Prospect of Business Divide Rises, Jim Cramer Says

Stock quotes in this article: abbv, celg, amgn, biib, gild
A note from RBC Capital Thursday on Gilead Sciences (GILD) , which some are calling a "trial balloon," got a lot of chatter and, judging by the pickup in some of the drugmaker's call volume Thursday, the chatter may not be idle.

RBC Capital suggested the drugmaker would be better off cutting its businesses right down the middle, and shares are likely to jump by as much as about 40% if management makes the cut, analysts with RBC Capital said in an investment note.
This article has been updated on Thursday, August 18, to reflect commentary from Jim Cramer on recent increases in volume on Gilead call options.

Is Gilead Sciences (GILD) going to take the knife to itself?

A recent note from RBC Capital on Gilead, which some are calling a "trial balloon," got a lot of chatter and -- judging by the pickup in recent call-option purchases, particularly with September and October expiration periods -- the chatter may not be idle. RBC Capital suggested the drugmaker would be better off cutting its businesses right down the middle, saying that shares could jump by as much as 40% if management makes the cut.

Real Money's Jim Cramer says that Gilead's call volume on Thursday, particularly for call options with a September strike price, is "way too big to ignore," noting that demand appears to be accelerating on Gilead's buyside.

The analysts said there is "trapped value" in Gilead's current combination of hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatments, noting the HCV businesses are less transparent while dealing with mounting competition. The treatments are facing an environment of price erosion and eurozone uncertainties, added the analysts, led by Michael Yee.

But if Gilead divides itself -- and the HIV treatment businesses are set loose, RBC Capital says, a separate HCV treatment business would likely begin trading at roughly $40 to $50 a share, while the HIV treatment businesses would hit the market at $50 to $60 per share. And with Gilead closing at $79.57 Thursday, the bifurcated company would be worth 13% to 38% more.

The Foster City, Calif.-based drugmaker has long been pressured by its HCV businesses, with shares down 32% over the past 12 months, but RBC Capital says the separated business could better compete with Biogen (BIIB) , Amgen (AMGN) , Celgene (CELG)  and AbbVie (ABBV) . (Biogen stock is held in Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS charitable trust.

The big question is whether management finds such a procedure urgent, the analysts added. After speaking with management, Yee said that will likely depend on whether there is continued underperformance -- for example, additional periods of lowered guidance -- or if a like-minded activist surfaces.

"HIV and HCV are two distinct businesses that each make up about 50% of the company currently, yet they should have different valuations and distinct investor bases, in our view," Yee added. "Accordingly, we believe the combined entity of Gilead trading at 7x 2016 price-to-earnings may present long-term value, because HCV headwinds are 'over-penalizing' a healthy HIV franchise, which should trade at a minimum of 12 to 15x."

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A cure at what cost? More states easing restrictions on Hepatitis C treatments



For years, Valerie Green just wasn't feeling right. She was in a constant state of fatigue but couldn't figure out what was going on. Neither could doctors. That was until a specialist ran a series of blood tests last year, and one came back positive for Hepatitis C.

"I was fairly shocked because I wasn't that knowledgeable about the disease. Everyone knows it's not a good thing, it effects your liver," Green recalled. "It was pretty scary."

What happened next put Green in the middle of a controversial, and now shifting, landscape when it comes to coverage of Hepatitis C treatment. In Delaware, that's meant experiencing some of the most restrictive rules in the country to, as of this summer, some of the most lenient.

New treatments offer new hope

Green, who's 56 and lives in Millville Del., isn't exactly sure how she contracted the virus. Hepatitis C (HCV) is mainly spread through blood to blood contact. These days, the most common mode of transmission is through sharing needles or other equipment used for injecting drugs. For baby boomers, especially, many may have also been exposed before the virus was screened out of the blood supply, beginning in 1992. Green thinks she got infected from a blood transfusion 30 years ago, when she gave birth to her son.

But the idea that someone like Green could have lived with the virus for decades and not know it isn't all that surprising. Hepatitis C is often referred to as a "silent" disease because most people who are chronically infected don't actually show symptoms (about a quarter of those infected naturally clear the virus). Over time, HCV can damage the liver and result in serious long-term health problems.

It's the leading cause of liver cancer and liver transplants in the United States. In 2014, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that nearly 20,000 people died from HCV complications, surpassing the number of deaths from 60 other infectious diseases, including HIV, combined.

After getting over that initial shock of the diagnosis and the stigma often associated with the disease, Green was relieved to finally pin down the actual problem.

"I was like, 'Wow, I really am sick, I knew it. I knew something was wrong.' It was validation," she remembered thinking. "Now the next step was, let's get it fixed."

Green had good reason to be optimistic.

Two and a half years ago, new drugs entered the market that completely transformed the treatment landscape for Hepatitis C. These direct-acting antivirals boast greater than 90 percent cure rates and minimal side effects for the most common types of HCV. And because earlier treatments were less effective and came with serious side effects, many providers and patients had held off on treatment, period, until these new drugs became available.

Green has Medicaid in Delaware. After receiving her Hepatitis C diagnosis, her doctor submitted the paperwork required to get these new medications. But Green's excitement only lasted two weeks.

"That's when my first denial came back," she recalled. "That was based on, I don't meet their recommendations of not being sick enough."

A cure with a catch

The new Hepatitis C drugs have come with a big catch: the price tag. It's difficult to know the exact cost — public and private payers negotiate private agreements with drug companies — but one of the main drugs, Sofosbuvir (the brand name is Sovaldi), has been listed at $1,000 a pill before discounts. It's taken once a day for up to three months, often in combination with other drugs, making the cost of a cure upwards of $100,000.

"It would not be feasible, financially, for us to treat everybody in our membership who has the diagnosis," said Stephen Groff, Medicaid director for the state of Delaware. "It would have broken the budget quite frankly. This is a situation where we had high cost, high volume — it's just not a good combination."

Medicaid officials elsewhere have echoed that sentiment.

While other cancer drugs might be even more expensive, the scope and scale of Hepatitis C has put state Medicaid programs, in particular, in an ethical and fiscal bind. More than 100 million people worldwide are chronically infected with Hepatitis C, including an estimated 2.7 to 3.9 million people in the United States. Studies have found the prevalence is higher among Medicaid populations.

Delaware is a small state, but Groff estimates that upwards of 2,000 residents with Medicaid coverage have been diagnosed with Hepatitis C. Last year, the state spent more than $13.5 million to treat 141 people who were chronically infected, representing six percent of the state's total drug spend for the year.

In nearby Pennsylvania, 1,889 people with Medicaid received treatment in 2015, costing about $145 million, or about seven percent of the state's total annual drug spend, according to the Medicaid office.

To determine who qualifies for the treatment, Pennsylvania, Delaware and other states require prior authorization. They base this on a Metavir system, or fibrosis scale, to prioritize treating patients with the most severe liver damage. A score of zero to one indicates minimal fibrosis, while four signals cirrhosis, or severe scarring and decline in liver function.

States limiting treatment amid budget concerns

Delaware limited eligibility to those with a score of four on that scale.

"We felt like we needed to get this drug out to individuals who we knew had an immediate need for a drug," said Groff.

That response didn't sit well with patients like Green, who applied again for the drugs and was again denied. While she experienced other symptoms that she attributed to her disease, like fatigue and nausea, her liver was healthy. She applied for several grants from outside organizations, but one that she really needed required a big co-pay from her primary insurer, Medicaid, which wasn't going to happen.

"Why make me wait? It's rationing, pure and simple in my mind," she said, referring to the Medicaid denial. "You know day in and day out that your liver is progressively getting worse and worse and worse and worse, and it's not going to get better until you have this drug to eradicate this virus. And you have an official saying, you're not sick enough, you can't have the medication. So it's extremely frustrating."

An analysis of pharmacy prescription data in Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland through April of 2015 found that people with medicaid were much more likely turned down for coverage of these new Hepatitis C drugs compared to Medicare or other private insurers. Medicaid rejections neared 50 percent.

Hepatitis C typically progresses slowly, but critics of such policies contend that making someone with Medicaid wait until they get sicker to qualify for a cure spells discrimination.

"Instead of state Medicaid programs embracing the idea that now we have a cure for the number one communicable disease killer in the U.S., we saw many programs implement unprecedented restrictions on access to treatment," said Robert Greenwald, director of the Center for Health Policy & Innovation at Harvard Law School.

Greenwald argues Medicaid covers a poorer, more vulnerable population that's being unduly denied treatment. He's been tracking Medicaid policies, and last year, he found that three quarters of states limited one of the main drugs, Sovaldi, to people with advanced liver disease.

"If we had a cure for Alzheimer's or cancer or M.S. at $30,000, we would not be in the same situation we're currently in," he said. "People would be storming the White House and legislators, demanding access to a cure. We as a nation should try to figure out how to meet those costs. It's myopic to think about pharmacy line items."

He draws a comparison to HIV.

"We consider it a tremendous victory that we have transformed HIV and we pay about $15,000 a year for the rest of a person's life," he said. "For HCV, the treatment is about $30,000 - that's proprietary info, it's hard to know the exact price that public and private insurers pay - but at $30,000, we can now cure a person."

If someone's cured, they can't transmit the virus, either.

Drug companies, which set the price, have long argued that it's worth the value: these drugs represent a one-time treatment that cures someone of a disease, and with that, curbs the need for costly liver transplants down the road. Plus, it costs a lot of money to develop the drugs.

Another study out last year also makes the case for the cost effectiveness of the new drugs, but concludes that more resources would be needed to treat patients.

Beyond Hepatitis C, mounting prescription drug costs have prompted national and international debates over drug costs. In general, it's on the rise. Both Republican and Democratic presidential candidates have addressed this in their platforms.

Changing Landscape

Since the initial wave of these new drugs entered the market in late 2013, the scientific, political and economic environment has been shifting. That, and several lawsuits, has spurred some states and private insurers to rethink their policies.

A year ago, Pennsylvania Medicaid's fee-for-service program eased its restrictions on Hepatitis C treatment, making those with "less severe" liver disease eligible. The state also removed a rule that a patient has to be drug or alcohol free for six months before qualifying for treatment. Patients coinfected with HIV are automatically eligible.

In recent months, Florida and New York expanded access to the drugs through their medicaid programs. Massachusetts lifted its restrictions this month.

Last March, the Department of Veterans Affairs announced it would treat all veterans with Hepatitis C, regardless of their liver disease status. It's been reported that several private insurers, including UnitedHealthcare and some Blue Shield plans, have started covering treatment for people who fall into any stage of the liver disease.

So why the changes?

For one, new medical guidelines have affirmed the new drugs' effectiveness and recommend early treatment.

In response, Medicare has eased its restrictions.

Last November, the federal government reminded states of their obligation to provide treatment that meets certain medical standards.

More drugs have entered the market, adding more competition. Health officials have also been pushing drug manufacturers to lower their rates and offer more rebates.

Several lawsuits have challenged state policies and the drug manufacturers' prices.

A class action lawsuit (one that Greenwald's center has been involved in) in Washington state resulted in a federal district judge ordering Medicaid to drop its restrictions on HCV treatments, ruling that the previous policy was not consistent with Medicaid requirements that treatments be covered based on medical needs.

The state attorney general in Massachusetts had also threatened to sue one of the manufacturers, Gilead Sciences, over drug prices and has since secured more rebates.

In Pennsylvania, a Medicaid spokesperson attributed the changes in its policy last year to updates in national and international treatment guidelines, evaluation of more clinical trials, and infectious disease specialist recommendations.

In May, the state's pharmacy committee also backed removing all liver disease restrictions for treatment. The state is currently reviewing what additional funds would be available if such a policy is implemented and how the additional costs would be absorbed in the budget.

"We have not made any final decisions yet," said Ted Dallas, Pennsylvania's Secretary of Human Services.

All in all, about a dozen states have either eliminated or reduced their restrictions in the last year, according to Greenwald, who's continuing to research state Medicaid policies.

"There's a movement. It's happening. It's slowly happening," he said. "It should be happening faster, given changes in drug pricing."

The pendulum swings in Delaware

Back in Delaware, the state lowered its eligibility to a fibrosis scale level of three in April. It also loosened some of its other qualifying criteria.

Then last month, the state set in motion a policy that would phase out any liver damage criteria. By January of 2017, eligibility will drop to a fibrosis score of two, and then to zero by January of 2018. In the meantime, those who demonstrate treatment is "medically necessary," regardless of a fibrosis score, will qualify for treatment.

"I would say this is always where we wanted to go and where we knew we were going and we're just happy we're getting there a little faster," said Groff, adding that he's hoping that people don't file in at once to get treated.

Groff estimates they'll treat between 600 and 700 people in the coming year, with the state spending as much as $40 million. He thinks drug rebates from manufacturers and federal Medicaid matching funds will offset a lot of the added cost.

"The landscape has changed significantly over the last three years," he said, adding that initially, the state faced too many unknowns. Now more evidence for the drugs have come out, along with more drug options. "The cost of the drugs themselves has come down considerably now that we have competition in the marketplace. The manufacturers are also willing to negotiate supplemental rebates with states. So that substantial reduction in costs is making it more feasible for us to have open access."

Doctors like Bill Mazur welcome the updates. He's an infectious disease doctor with the state prison system and with Christiana Health Care system. Since the new drugs came out, Hepatitis C has turned into his primary focus.

"The conversations with patients sometimes were a little uncomfortable because I couldn't inform them how long their wait would be," said Dr. Mazur.

Now he has an answer for patients with Medicaid.

Looking ahead, Mazur does worry about whether the health system has the capacity, whether there are enough of him to treat everyone who's infected.

Kelly McNelis, a clinical pharmacy specialist at Christiana Care Health System's community program and colleague of Mazur's, estimates that since the policy change, they've started three newly eligible people a week on the treatment.

"It's been lovely," said McNelis, "It was so disappointing to have to tell someone you know you're healthy now, we'd like to treat you now, but we have to wait until you get a little sicker before we can treat you."

As for Valerie Green, who was diagnosed with Hepatitis C last year and denied treatment, she's optimistic she'll be approved for treatment this time around. She had been preparing a lawsuit with Greenwald's group, but they've tabled it. She recently re-applied for treatment.

"I was very excited," she said. "Hopefully, I'll feel great, and I won't have these symptoms any longer and I can get back to leading a normal life."

For her, that includes working again, raising awareness about the disease and the resources that are available to get tested and treated, and taking part in one of her favorate pastimes...walking on the beach.


Pharmalot, Pharmalittle: Valeant under criminal investigation for defrauding insurers

Good morning, everyone, and how are you today? We are doing reasonably well, thank you, given an especially busy week. But this is to be expected in a busy world, yes? So please join us as we cope by quaffing yet another cup of stimulation. Remember, a prescription is not required. Meanwhile, here are some tidbits to help you along. We hope you have a smashing day and do drop us a line when something fascinating occurs …

Federal prosecutors are pursuing a criminal investigation into whether Valeant Pharmaceuticals defrauded insurers by hiding its relationship with Philidor Rx Services, a pharmacy that was used to boost prescriptions of its medicines, the Wall Street Journal reports. At issue is whether insurers thought Philidor was neutral rather actively promoting Valeant drugs. Valeant had acquired an option to buy Philidor, but did not disclose that for many months and only acknowledged the relationship after this report.

In its quest to win customers in India, some Abbott Laboratories managers instructed employees to pursue sales at virtually any cost, the New York Times reports. But this was allegedly done in violation of Indian law, professional medical standards, and the company’s own ethics guidelines. Last month, Ashish Awasthi, 35, was found dead on a railway track and a note recovered from him blamed the company and pressure to hit sales targets for his death.

The US Department of Veterans Affairs is extending coverage of new antiviral treatments to all veterans with hepatitis C, regardless of the stage of their illness and whether they contracted these infections during military service, according to the Journal of the American Medical Association. The agency is starting therapy for 1,100 patients a week — double from a year ago — and hopes to increase that to 2,000 patients a week by the end of this year.

The US Food and Drug Administration agreed to review a Marathon Pharmaceuticals treatment for Duchenne muscular dystrophy, the Chicago Tribune tells us. Known as deflazacort, the drug is already available outside the US, where it has been approved for other uses. But because the steroid does not have FDA approval, the medication is not widely available here.

Tax breaks for drug makers: Allergan will use over $58 million in incentives from a New Jersey state agency to consolidate its current operations and develop a new US headquarters at a facility in Madison by the end of 2017, NJBiz writes. Separately, Pfizer has won the first part of its request for a tax break on a planned $145 million expansion of its manufacturing plant in Portage, Mich., according to MLive.

AstraZeneca has invested another $140 million in Moderna Therapeutics, raising its stake to 9 percent in the company, which is developing drugs based on a molecule known as messenger RNA, Reuters says.

Clinical trial volunteers in India complained to the National Human Rights Commission that some clinical research organizations violated certain regulations and exploited participants, PharmaBiz tells us.

A former partner at the Hunton & Williams law firm and his investment adviser were criminally charged with participating in an insider-trading scheme ahead of a Pfizer deal, the Wall Street Journal writes.

After two rejections, the FDA finally approved Heron Therapeutics’s long-acting injection for preventing chemotherapy-induced nausea, Reuters reports.

PharmaTech recalled more drugs made at a Florida plant that was linked an outbreak of B. cepacia last month, according to InPharma Technologist.

The National Health Service in England launched a 45-day public consultation on a proposed clinical commissioning policy for the PrEP HIV treatment, PharmaTimes writes.

Australia’s Therapeutic Goods Administration approved changes to labels for prescription and nonprescription medicines so they align with international practices, Regulatory Focus informs us.

Billion Dollar Blunder: On the 1-Year Anniversary of a New Class of Cholesterol Medicines, Study Finds Actual Cost of New Drugs Is Billions Less than Predicted

BEVERLY HILLS, Calif., Aug. 11, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Concerns about rising drug costs continue to grab headlines, but a new analysis suggests that health care organizations looking for ways to manage these costs may be relying on seriously flawed numbers that routinely overestimate cost growth.

The Partnership for Health Analytics Research (PHAR, LLC), a leading health services research consultancy, announced today that predictions of health care costs made prior to the introduction of new drugs are often dramatically overestimated. These overestimates may, in turn, cause health insurers to make access to drugs more difficult for patients than may be clinically appropriate.

In one example, the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER) predicted the one-year cost of the two PCSK9 inhibitors, a new class of injectable treatments for patients with high cholesterol who are at high risk of CV events, would be $7.2 billion. Based on the initial quarters of reported sales, the actual number will be closer to $83 million, or 1.2% of the prediction, an overestimate of $7.1 billion.  As Dr. Michael S. Broder, MD, President of PHAR notes: "Overestimating drug costs by so much cannot lead to good decision making.  In fact, it is likely that patients feel the negative effects of such predictions in the form of early access restrictions and higher copayments."

The overall study examined publicly released predictions for the cost of 14 drugs launched in a variety of indications since 2012. In addition to the two cholesterol lowering drugs, PHAR studied three drugs to treat various forms of cancer; three for hepatitis C; two for obesity management; and one each for cystic fibrosis, heart failure, psoriasis, and diabetes.

The researchers found 24 published predictions for the 14 drugs and compared them to actual sales. On average, predictions were 11 times higher than actual sales. That is, for every $11 of predicted cost there was only $1 of actual cost to the healthcare system.

In other examples, PricewaterhouseCoopers and Bloomberg both predicted the drug cost to the healthcare system for Viekira Pak, for hepatitis C, and Opdivo, for metastatic melanoma skin cancer. Their predictions for Viekira Pak were over $2.9 billion; actual first year sales were 28% of the prediction. Similarly, the predicted cost of Opdivo was $1.7 billion; actual sales were 48% of predicted. Underestimates were less common —Cosentyx, originally approved for psoriasis, was predicted to cost $120 million in the first year after launch; actual sales were more than twice that. Taken together, these findings raise concern about the usefulness of pre-launch predictions for payers, patients, and prescribers.

The study findings are consistent with other recent research. A prominent physician predicted in the New England Journal of Medicine that the PCSK9 inhibitor class alone would raise annual health care premiums by $124 per person. Yet, a report by the advisory company Avalere Health showed that all prescription drugs accounted for only a $3.29 average increase in per member per month premiums.

The results of the current study were submitted for presentation at the Association of Managed Care Pharmacy's (AMCP) upcoming NEXUS conference.

Dr. Broder summarized the significance of this research, saying, "Drug usage predictions are used to inform pharmacy policy.  Our goal in pointing out these discrepancies is to help improve predictions and decision making. Ideally, payers and policymakers would be able to use them as planning tools. In their current form, I'm afraid these predictions are so far off that they may just be scaring people into making bad decisions about limiting access to new drugs."